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What Would a War Between Israel and Hezbollah Look Like?


A potential war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely be a complex and multifaceted conflict, drawing on both sides' military capabilities and regional alliances. Tensions or provocations along the Israel-Lebanon border, where Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group backed by Iran, has a strong presence, could spark the war. This conflict could be the most destructive Israel has ever faced, potentially bringing its society to the breaking point.

Military Engagements:

The war would probably begin with a strong Israeli initiative, deploying much of its air force to target strategic facilities and Hezbollah military sites. Hezbollah would retaliate with thousands of missiles targeting Israeli military sites, infrastructure, urban areas, power plants, and other strategic locations. Hezbollah's arsenal, which includes tens of thousands of rockets capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory, poses a significant threat. Israel's Iron Dome and other missile defense systems would be tested, aiming to intercept incoming projectiles to minimize civilian and infrastructure damage.

Ground Operations:

Israel would likely launch ground incursions into southern Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah's extensive network of tunnels and bunkers, aiming to reach the Litani River, about eight miles inland. Israel has a total of 11 divisions, with up to six available for the attack if fully deployed. The ground operation would be dangerous and costly, given Hezbollah's experience in guerrilla warfare. Urban warfare in Lebanese towns and villages could result in high casualties on both sides and significant destruction.

Air Strikes and Naval Operations:

The Israeli Air Force would conduct widespread air strikes targeting Hezbollah's command centers, weapons depots, and supply lines. The Israeli navy might enforce a blockade to cut off Hezbollah's supply routes and prevent arms shipments.

Regional Involvement:

A war could draw in regional actors. Iran, a major backer of Hezbollah, might increase its support through arms and strategic guidance. There is a possibility that Iran could attack Israel directly, further complicating the conflict. Syrian territory could be used for logistical support to Hezbollah. Conversely, Israel might seek backing from the United States and other Western allies, receiving military aid and diplomatic support.

Humanitarian Impact:

The civilian toll would be significant. Both Lebanese and Israeli populations would face displacement, casualties, and infrastructure destruction. International humanitarian organizations would likely mobilize to provide aid, but access and safety would be major concerns.

Diplomatic Efforts:

Efforts to broker a ceasefire would be intense, with international actors like the United Nations, the United States, and possibly Russia playing key roles. However, achieving a lasting peace would require addressing the deeper political and ideological rifts that fuel the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

In summary, a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be a devastating and highly complex conflict, with far-reaching implications for the region's stability and international relations. If Israel cannot decisively defeat Hezbollah, it will likely face continued conflict in the future. The price of a devastating war might buy only a temporary ceasefire, raising questions about the strategic objectives and long-term consequences for Israel.

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What Would a War Between Israel and Hezbollah Look Like?
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