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A Month of War: Assessing the Current Landscape and Anticipating Future Developments

Written by:
Yishai Gelb

33 days have gone by since the beginning of the war. Several key elements come to the forefront, painting a complex picture of tragedy, geopolitical dynamics, military strategies, international pressures, and humanitarian crises. This comprehensive overview delves into the multifaceted aspects of the conflict, shedding light on the intricate web of factors influencing the course of events. Where were we in the beginning of this war? Where are we now, and what to expect in the coming month?

A Month of War: Assessing the Current Landscape and Anticipating Future Developments

Characteristics of the war


A Nation United in Tragedy


The war in Israel is not merely a military engagement; it is a narrative of tragedy and unity that transcends societal divisions. Prior to the outbreak of the war, Israeli society grappled with internal strife, particularly regarding judicial reform. The schism between the Left and Right was palpable, exacerbating tensions between the Israeli government and Jewish communities outside the nation's borders.


The pivotal moment arrived on the 7th of October with attacks orchestrated by Hamas. This onslaught prompted a collective pause, forcing diverse segments of Israeli society—ranging from conservatives to progressives, ultra-religious to secular—to confront a shared realization. The enemy, Hamas, and their supporters painted all Jews in Israel and around the world with the same brush, indifferent to distinctions such as political ideologies or religious affiliations. The unity born from tragedy became a powerful force, revealing a common thread that bound the nation together.


Regional Geopolitics


Hamas, the instigator of the war, pursued a singular objective: to thrust the Palestinian question back onto the global stage and impede any progress in peace agreements between Israel and Middle Eastern nations. The Arab world, despite religious differences, found common ground in condemning Israel and supporting the Palestinian cause.


A dichotomy emerged between Sunni Arab countries seeking stability and an Israeli victory over Hamas for geopolitical advantage, and Iran, along with its allies, aiming to see Israel weakened, disrupting the coalition forming between Israel and Sunni Arab states.


Iran's strategic calculus during the conflict centered on anticipating Israel's approach: a restrained operation with minimal ground invasion or a full-scale war aiming to eradicate Hamas from the Gaza Strip. Iran's preference was for the former, signaling a desire for a ceasefire that would showcase Israel's perceived inability to withstand the Iranian coalition.


Ending the Threat from Gaza


Israel's military campaign crystallized into two primary objectives: the repatriation of 244 hostages held by Hamas and the obliteration of all military and governing infrastructure belonging to the militant organization. A shift in policy occurred post-October 7th, challenging the notion of a sustainable status quo maintained for 13 years.


The toll of the conflict has been steep, with Israel grappling with a death toll nearing 1500, displacement of over 250,000 individuals, and substantial economic ramifications. The Gaza Strip, too, bears the brunt of the conflict, with a significant portion of the population expressing support for Hamas, offering insight into the complex dynamics shaping Gazan loyalties.


The War After One Month


As of November 7th, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) executed strategic moves, targeting over 2500 military infrastructures, eliminating thousands of Hamas affiliates, and dismantling 130 terror tunnels. The siege of Gaza City, a key military stronghold, is underway.


The IDF's military prowess, with over 360,000 reservists actively engaged, underscores the nation's commitment to achieving its objectives. Despite tensions in the north, particularly with rocket attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel strategically allocates resources to prevent a second front from the north and a third front within its borders.


International Pressure


From the onset, pro-Palestinian demonstrations materialized, initially celebrating violence against Jews in Israel and subsequently condemning Israel for the plight of Gazans. Israel's response to Hamas in the Gaza Strip was delayed as the primary focus was eliminating infiltrating terrorists.


As Israel escalated airstrikes and initiated ground operations, the Gaza body count rose. The global perception squarely places blame on Israel, asserting an occupation of Gaza. Contrary to this narrative, Israel has no troops, citizens, or governing power in Gaza. Since Hamas's election in 2007, it has governed Gaza and has become the second wealthiest terrorist organization globally, amassing over $1 billion annually. The majority of these funds are extorted from impoverished Gazans and misappropriated international humanitarian aid.


For over 15 years, Hamas exploited Gazans, diverting resources to build military networks within civilian structures. The leadership, comfortably ensconced in Qatari luxury, orchestrated heinous acts including burning Israeli infants, desecrating corpses, immolating individuals alive, and taking children as hostages. Their deliberate placement of Gazans in the crossfire is a calculated strategy.


The Western world's proclivity to sympathize with the perceived underdog, coupled with a moral metric based on body count, plays into Hamas's hands. Unable to defeat Israel militarily, Hamas strategically provokes Israeli military responses, deliberately putting Gazans at risk. The international community promptly sides with Hamas, pressuring Israel to cease hostilities. Subsequently, aid is provided for Gaza's reconstruction, with Hamas exploiting the situation to enrich themselves.


Hamas's financial success stems not from drug trade but from exploiting their own people, coercing them into poverty while deflecting responsibility for their welfare onto Israel and the UN.


The pressing question remains: When will this cycle of manipulation and violence come to an end?


Diplomatic Front


A geopolitical map emerges, reflecting a coalition reminiscent of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The Israel-Hamas war becomes a battleground in the broader global struggle between the Western world order, led by the USA, and authoritarian collectivist countries, including Russia, China, and Iran.


Map of international alignment of Israel-Hamas war



Map of international alignment of Ukraine-Russia war


What to expect in November?


Anticipating the coming month, the IDF aims for swift military achievements amid international pressures. Control over the northern half of the Gaza Strip, including a siege of Gaza City, is a strategic objective. While Hamas's defeat in the city may not be imminent, the IDF's urban warfare could result in casualties.


Geopolitical Implications


Israel's successful military operation exerts pressure on Iran, scrutinizing its role as a regional power. The absence of Iranian intervention could signal to the region that aligning with Iran might not be advantageous. Expectations rise for Iran's aggressive maneuvers in the coming month to influence the conflict, whether through missile launches or attacks on oil tankers to jack up the price of oil globally pressuring the West to restrain Israel.


Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza


The conflict's toll on Gaza is stark, with over 40,000 apartments demolished, 200,000 damaged, and a staggering loss of life. Hospitals are incapacitated, and 1.5 million people face displacement, and limited water, and food supplies. The closed Egyptian border exacerbates the humanitarian crisis, intensifying pressures on Israel and Egypt, and further fueling protests in the West.


Hostages


As the IDF advances towards Gaza City, the prospect of hostage rescue looms. However, the release of hostages, particularly non-Israelis, hinges on diplomatic concessions. The uncertainty surrounding hostage situations underscores the complexity of diplomatic engagements in the midst of conflict.


In conclusion, the Israel-Hamas conflict unfolds as a tapestry of tragedy, unity, geopolitical intricacies, and humanitarian crises. The coming month holds pivotal moments, demanding strategic military maneuvers, diplomatic finesse, and a careful calibration of international dynamics. The world watches as the region grapples with the repercussions of a war with far-reaching consequences.

Supporting the IDF

We are thrilled to share with you Connections Israel's upcoming project: our Winter Campaign. It's more than just a drive; it's a movement to bring warmth and support to our soldiers on the Northern front. As the heat intensifies on the Lebanon front, the potential for a second front against Hizballa looms.

Now, more than ever, our soldiers need our collective strength and generosity.

Supporting Israeli Farmers

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Support Israeli farmers in Israel, many of whom have been called up to defend the state of Israel. They are bravely fighting alongside their units to protect our nation. As the harvest approaches, we cannot afford to wait for the war to end!

Create your privately labeled olive oil wine and whisky from farmers in Israel. shipped to your doorstep!

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